Informasi Detil Paper |
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| Judul: | Rainfall and Rainy Days Prediction in Ambon Island Using Vector Autoregression Model |
| Penulis: | Lexy Janzen Sinay & Salmon Notje Aulele || email: lj.sinay@staff.unpatti.ac.id |
| Jurnal: | Prosiding FMIPA 2015 Vol. 1 no. 1 - hal. 90-98 Tahun 2015 [ MIPA ] |
| Keywords: | Ambon island, time series, rainfall, rainy days, vector autoregression, ð‘‰ð´ð‘…(7), lag order selection criteria, ð‘…2, autocorrelations, ð‘€ð‘†ð¸, forecasting. |
| Abstract: | Ambon Island is one of the islands in Maluku Province, located in the eastern part of Indonesia. Ambon island is a tropical area with two seasons, namely rainy season and dry season. Geographically, Ambon island has a seasonal rainfall patterns with the high rainfall. The highest rainfall on the Ambon island occurred between May until July. In the last decade, the pattern of rainfall on the Ambon island become irregular. One of the indicator of this phenomenon was the extreme rainfall occured on the Ambon island. Extreme rain is the one of the factors that cause natural disasters in the Ambon island such as floods and landslides. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate rainfall model on the Ambon island using vector autoregression model (ð‘‰ð´ð‘…) and to forecast rainfall and rainy days based on the best model of ð‘‰ð´ð‘…. The data used in this research is time series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The data is monthly rainfall data (ð‘Ÿð‘Žð‘–ð‘›ð‘“ð‘Žð‘™ð‘™) and rainy days data for every month (ð‘‘ð‘Žð‘¦ð‘ ) on the Ambon island. The best of ð‘‰ð´ð‘… models are based on the following analysis procedures: ð‘‰ð´ð‘… lag order selection criteria, ð‘…2, residual test for autocorrelations, and ð‘€ð‘†ð¸. In this study, we’ve gained the (7) as the best model. (7) derived from logarithmic transformation of the actual data. From this model, we’ve predicted the situation in 2015 that the mean value of monthly rainfall and rainy days is 171 mm and 16 days per month, respectively. ð‘€ð‘†ð¸ of this model was 0.499 for (ð‘Ÿð‘Žð‘–ð‘›ð‘“ð‘Žð‘™ð‘™) and 0.141 for (ð‘‘ð‘Žð‘¦ð‘ ). It is accurate because this model has the smallest ð‘€ð‘†ð¸ values. |
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