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Judul: Temporal Statistical Analysis of The Volcanic Eruption In Mt. Banda Api, Banda Islands, Moluccas
Penulis: J. R. Kelibulin & R. R. Lokollo  || email:
Jurnal: Prosiding FMIPA 2016 Vol. 1 no. 1 - hal. 97-103 Tahun 2016  [ Prosiding ]
Keywords:  Mt. Banda Api, volcanic eruptions, VEI, repose time, exponential distribution, log-logistic distribution, weibull distribution, thermal energy, potential energy.
Abstract: Mt. Banda Api (641 m) is a volcano islands located on 4o31’30 ― S and 129o52’17" E. More than 27 eruptions have been reported since four of the last century. The volcanoes has the potential to cause natural disasters with the different intensity and power. Volcanic activity is a natural occurrence that is difficult to predict and may be considered as chaotic with no clear shape. Statistical methods can be applied to explain the pattern of volcanic eruptions as well as to help forecast future volcanic eruption activity. In this study, three temporal statistical methods was applied (Exponential distribution, Weibull distribution and Log- Logistic distribution). In general, the exponential distribution provides the highest probability of eruption that occurred within a specific time in the future with a 95% confidence level. In 2014, probability of eruptions in Mt. Banda Api is 49,16 %. Pattern of volcanic eruption in Indonesia are not normally distributed, so that the pattern of volcanic eruptions is a random. Qualitatively, the biggest eruption will follow the longest repose time interval. However, the magnitude of repose time no influence on the magnitude of VEI and doesn’t affect to the probability of occurrence the volcanic eruptions. The average potential energy of the volcanic eruption in Mt. Banda Api period 1800-2013 amounted to 1,0195 x 1019 ergs and the average thermal energy of the volcanic eruption period 1800-2013 amounted to 2,0378 x 1021 ergs. Therefore, the total energy of the volcanic eruption in Mt. Banda Api amounted to 2,0479 x 1021 ergs.
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